During Niseko’s stunning growth of the last ~25 years, no area has changed more significantly than Hirafu, the resort’s main hub.

Virtually unrecognisable from the sleepy onsen town of yesteryear, the Hirafu of today more closely resembles a small and wealthy city – luxury retailers dotted between densely packed condo buildings.

So, is it still a buy? The answer as always is, it depends.

The case for

 – It’s the centre of the Niseko universe – geographically, financially, culturally.

Hirafu has all the biggest name hotels, bars, restaurants, ski schools, shops etc in the area and will remain the area that most people want to stay in, at least for the foreseeable future. Everything you need to get to for an epic holiday is within a walkable distance. If you wish to look further afield (and you definitely should), then it’s easy to access any of the resort areas, whether on skis or in a car.

 – It’s likely to yield the most consistently. 

If rental yield is your main focus, it makes sense to invest in the place that the largest number of people want to stay. While all resort areas are virtually at capacity in peak season, Hirafu – particularly Upper Hirafu and particularly ski-in ski-out – tends to enjoy greater occupancy in the shoulder seasons.

 – They are taking lift upgrades seriously.

With so many more skiers coming into the resort, Hirafu needed to invest significantly in its ski lifts in order to keep pace. Happily, they are doing so.
We bid farewell to the legendary Center Four lift at the end of the 2023-24 winter, to be replaced by the brand new 10 seater Gondola, which will whisk its first lucky skiers up the hill starting December 2024.

In addition, the fairly modern King Quad Lift #3 will be upgraded from a 4-seater to a 6-seater, ready for the 2025-26 winter.

 – It’s inching its way towards being a year-round resort.

For so many years, Niseko’s stunning summer season has been a story of untapped potential. With Hirafu opening their first seriously built and maintained mountain bike trails this summer, along with the unbelievably dedicated team at Namba putting in some incredible free-to-use MTB trails, a scene is building.

Summer visitor numbers are growing year on year, as is the range of summer activities on offer, ushering Hirafu towards a more stable, year-round offering, rather than a winter heavy operation.

 – Demand is still high

Despite the rapid increase in prices over the years, Hirafu remains an attractive prospect for investors. It remains the most heavily enquired about and invested-in area in the resort. The property offerings have changed over the years, but it is still the key draw for foreign investors.

The case against

 – It’s too busy

In the peak season (Dec – March), the town is bursting at the seams. Accommodation, restaurants, ski schools, bars, all must be booked months in advance. This is not a resort for the spontaneous traveller, those seeking a getaway to nature, or an authentic Japanese experience.

– It’s too expensive

Property prices have appreciated strongly across the board in Niseko since the turn of the millenium, nowhere more so than in Hirafu, now boasting some of the most expensive real estate in Japan. Whether or not this pace is sustainable over the next ~20 years is a matter of much debate.

– The market is oversaturated

Developers have responded to the massive spike in demand from international investors with increasingly luxurious and ambitious projects. The largest condo buildings in the early aughts had a dozen units at best. The newest behemoths number well into the hundreds, with more in the pipeline. With so much rental inventory in the market, will management companies be able to fill all of those units?

– There’s so much more out there

The biggest waves of investment hit Hirafu, but the ripples have spread through all of the resort areas, and all points in between.
The grass is always greener (the snow is always whiter?) but increasingly, investors are finding their niche elsewhere.

Previously unknown names – Soga, Arishima, Kondo, Kyogoku, to name a few – are becoming seriously hot prospects in the market.

The bottom line

Is Hirafu still a buy, then?

Yes, but with some caveats. There’s a glut of options out there, and you will need to place your investments carefully to maximise returns.
If you’re prepared to think outside the box a little more, there’s a whole world of opportunity awaiting you.